Global shipping is playing a game of two halves right now — and the scoreboard couldn’t look more different depending on which chokepoint you’re watching.
On one side, the Strait of Hormuz is barely moving. On the other, the Red Sea is quietly warming back up after a nearly three-year cold shoulder.
The Hormuz picture
Ship movements through the Strait remain tightly constrained. Data firm Kpler recorded just five transits on August 25 — down from seven the day before — with four of those vessels flagged as shadow ships and one as sanctioned. All five were operating under Iran’s Unilateral Scheme.
There is, however, a diplomatic flicker of hope:
- Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency reports that Tehran and Oman’s Muscat have been in talks for about a month and are approaching a mutually acceptable deal on coordinating passage.
- Iran’s IRGC spokesperson suggested the Strait could reopen if the US backs off and agrees to Tehran’s terms.
- An Indian oil tanker, the Haana, reportedly reversed course after an IRGC warning when approaching via the southern Oman Corridor.
For container shipping specifically, the Hormuz blockage is manageable — less than 2% of global container capacity moves through the strait annually. The bigger pain is indirect: rising bunker fuel costs are nudging rates upward across the board.
The Red Sea is stirring
Nearly three years after carriers first rerouted around Africa to dodge Houthi missile attacks, the Asia–Europe shortcut via the Red Sea and Suez Canal is showing signs of life.
- MSC has formally announced a partial resumption of Suez services on the Asia–Europe route.
- Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd (operating as the Gemini Cooperation) are rerouting an Asia–Europe service back through Suez.
- CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, and OOCL — the Ocean Alliance — are also providing partial Suez operations.
The Houthis have warned they’ll keep targeting Saudi tankers through Bab al-Mandab, so risks remain. Still, Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime suggests a return to normalcy is plausible by end of 2026, with some Africa-loop services likely continuing to absorb the surplus capacity unlocked.
The stakes
A full Suez reopening would be a big deal. Container rates are currently at their highest levels since 2024, and restoring the shorter route would release significant capacity and push prices down — welcome news for importers, less so for carriers riding elevated rate environments.
For the chemical sector in particular, the route matters: polymers like polyethylene and polypropylene travel in containers, while liquid chemicals move in isotanks — all sensitive to the capacity and cost dynamics these corridors control.
Looking ahead… The next few weeks are pivotal. If the Iran–Oman pact materialises and major carriers complete their Suez return, the second half of 2026 could see freight rates soften considerably — which would be the supply chain story of the year.